Mark Knudson’s Three Strikes Blog: Strike Two
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How the West can be won
STRIKE TWO: The dudes in charge of Major League Baseball’s Nerdville have spoken. Because the Colorado Rockies had a “run differential” of just +25 last season – which isn’t very good I guess – they have no shot to return to the National League Play-offs for the third consecutive season in 2019. You see even though the Los Angeles Dodgers lost more than they added in the off season players-wise (same as the Rockies) because it says “Dodgers” across their chests, they’re now deemed by Nerdville as being a dozen or more game better than Colorado. Never mind that the last time the two teams actually played on the field, the Dodgers were exactly ONE game better than Colorado.
You know that silly “what happens ON the field stuff? Doesn’t matter. It’s all about the math.
Fortunately every real, actual sports fan knows this is all nonsense. Games aren’t played on paper – or on laptops in mom’s basement. They’re played by real, actual human beings; professional athletes that have ups and downs physically and mentally, get hurt and get healthy, and routinely surprise us with their performance – good and bad.
Despite what’s is coming out of baseball’s Nerdville, it’s impossible to accurately predict what’s going to happen over the course of a six-month long regular MLB season. As one guy put it perfectly on Twitter recently, “The amount of volatility inherent in a 162-game season makes year long projections irrelevant.” Couldn’t say it better myself.
So what DO the Rockies have to do to capture their first National League West Division crown – something they came painfully close to getting last season before falling short?
Ironically, the Rockies have to be better at what the Dodgers have been great at the last couple of seasons. (No that does not mean brining someone like Manny Machado, who’s production for LA was actually pretty ordinary.) Actually, the Dodgers have excelled at finding a diamond (or two) in the rough. LA hasn’t built two NL champs in a row with free agents. Sure, they’ve added some veterans on their last legs – Chase Utley, David Freese, etc – and have gotten some level of production from those signings, but what has made the Dodgers pennant winners the past few seasons has been top shelf production by players that the baseball nerds expected little or nothing from in previous Februarys. For example, there was NO ONE who expected Max Muncy, who was signed off the scrap heap last off season, to be a key cog in the LA lineup in 2018. Same with Cody Bellinger and Chris Taylor the season before. The LA farm system has churned out Corey Seager, Joc Pederson, Walker Buehler and more.
THAT is why the Dodgers have been division champs. Nothing to do with free spending, buying free agents or any of that.
THAT is what the Colorado Rockies – who also don’t want to try to buy a division title – need to do better.
So for the Rockies to overtake the Dodgers?
First, the line-up can’t have another historically bad season. Last year was the single worst offensive season in Rockies history. That obviously has to change. And the bullpen has to find a replacement for Adam Ottovino of course. Paging Bryan Shaw, circa 2017…Mr. Shaw, are you available?
With a starting rotation that is, in some opinions including this one, better than the Dodgers one-through-five, what the Rockies need most, “boost” wise, is for one of their unknown, unsung young players to step out of the shadows and be this year’s Max Muncy.
Garrett Hampson? Ryan McMahon? Brendan Rodgers? How about Josh Fuentes – whose cousin Nolan Arenado is getting ready to sign a big phat contract extension with the Rox? Fuentes was the MVP of the Pacific Coast League last year at…you guessed it…third base. But Josh told me directly to my face in May of last year that he can play second base as well.
Anyone? Anyone? Somebody has to blossom this year, and if the Rockies are going to win the NL West this year, that somebody can’t play be wearing blue…he needs to be in purple.
We already know Trevor Story should come back with another great year. Charlie Blackmon should benefit from the move to right field. David Dahl may not qualify as a surprise anymore, but he too, will be a key cog. Can Ian Desmond produce at the plate? What about newbies Daniel Murphy and returnee Mark Reynolds?
So many questions. No concrete answers…just guesses coming from mom’s basement. That’s why we play the game on the field, right?
Wanna argue? Hit me up on Twitter @MarkKnudson41. Coming Friday: Are Tad Boyle’s Buffs for real?
