Mark Knudson’s Three Strikes Blog: Strike One:
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It’s not how the Nuggets have started that matters now, it’s how they finish
STRIKE ONE: It’s been more than four decades since the Denver Nuggets were in first place in the Western Conference this late into the season (as they were briefly at the end of last week.) As the new week begins – there are just two and a half weeks left in the regular season – Denver trails Golden State by just one-half game. Even after a six-game winning streak (three of them on the road) came to a crashing halt in Indianapolis, Denver remains in prime position. The possibility is real.
However, so is the possibility of the Nuggets falling back in the standings enough to lose home court advantage in the opening round of the NBA play-offs.
The Western Conference is, as usual, very tightly bunched. This season, there won’t be any drama about which teams get into the play-offs – current #8-seed San Antonio is comfortably ahead of ninth place Sacramento – but the eight that are going to get in are currently separated by just seven games. The play-off pecking order changes daily.
For the Nuggets part, they’re three games up on third place Houston and four on fourth place Portland. Finish in the top four and you get that home court in the first round. Finish in the top two and you could get two rounds at home (provided Denver can avoid that old first round bugaboo.)
That’s the good news.
The bad news is that seven of Denver’s last 10 games are against Western Conference play-off teams, and five of those seven are on the road (at Golden State, at Houston, at Utah, at Portland and at OKC. Ugh.) The path to a top-four seed isn’t bumpy, it’s mountainous.
The Nuggets next win will be their 50th of the season. That’s a wonderful milestone for Michael Malone and his squad, especially considering Denver hasn’t made the play-offs since 2013. The expectations going into the season were to hopefully get to the 48-50 win threshold and earn that first play-off berth in forever. This wasn’t going to be a RE-building season so much as a building one. They’ve already exceeded those expectations.
Expectations change. Just ask George Karl.
Going into the 2012-2013 season, Karl’s Nuggets weren’t even supposed to be a play-off team. But a roster that was deep and devoid of stars won 57 games and earned the #3 seed. Then they were upset by the sixth-seeded Warriors in the first round and Karl – who would win the NBA Coach of the Year award that season – was out.
The expectations for this Nuggets team have now changed. A slip in the standings, or worse yet, another first round play-off exit would throw a wet towel over what has been an amazing season to date. That’s just the nature of sports.
Malone – the likely NBA Coach of the Year this season – isn’t getting fired any time soon. Still, it will be best for all concerned if this Nuggets team can finish what they started, because that’s going to be the ultimate takeaway from what has been the start of something really good.
Wanna argue? Hit me up on Twitter @MarkKnudson41. Coming Wednesday: When Opening Day was actually Opening Day.
