There’s been a lot of talk about what the Broncos will do with that 5th pick in next week’s NFL draft. In fact, I dare say this is the most important event for Denver since Elway took over as VP. Sure, Elway has had several big moments as leader of this organization; resigning Champ Bailey, picking Von Miller, trading Tim Tebow, signing Peyton Manning, Talib, Ware and Sanders but after two seasons of 0.00 playoff games, The Duke prepares for his greatest challenge yet; fixing his own mess. Before Elway, McDaniels did a mighty fine job of running the Broncos into the ground so much so that they were awarded a number 2 pick in 2011. Elway’s task was simple: Get Better. Nowhere to go but up right? And that’s exactly where this team went for 5 straight seasons. With 5 AFC West division championships, 5 trips to the playoffs, 2 trips to the Super Bowl and of course, 1 Lombardi Trophy, Elway quickly took a dark moment in Broncos history to one of its most successful runs. But now it’s different. Elway is not the knight in shining armor asked to save a franchise that’s needed him since he retired as one of the greatest quarterbacks to play the game. He’s now the guy that HAS to correct his own mistakes or perhaps fizzle away from Broncos Country for good. So yes, the NFL draft is colossal for #7. The draft is where we truly measure a managers ability to not only evaluate talent but what that talent will do in the long run for your franchise. Typically, there’s a season of grace with any pick, even the number 1, but this year the Broncos have to get better fast so expect more pressure on the 5th pick than any pick in recent memory for the Blue and Orange. So what can we learn from John Elway’s 7 drafts that perhaps might give us some insight into what Denver will do next Thursday night? Elway is known for signing big time free agents every year (yes, that includes Case Keenum) but where he is most criticized is his draft picks and particularly his 1st round draft picks. Is that criticism warranted?
In 2011 Denver had the #2 pick and did what most thought they would do in taking Von Miller. Any debate here? NO…he’s an A+ hands down. Moving on.
No pick in 2012.
In 2013, I think we can consider Sylvester Williams a bust. Even at pick 28, a DT is a risk and it didn’t pay off for Denver as Williams never really gained his footing playing for Denver. He now plays for Detroit. I’m giving this pick a D+ based on little impact.
2014 saw the next best 1st round pick in Elway’s history as VP: Bradley Roby. As a nickel back he was at least a B for the Broncos as he was a key part in the “No Fly Zone” and one of the best overall Cornerback groups in the NFL for several seasons. What will he do as the #2 CB next season? Broncos Country is eager to find out.
2015 was an interesting one. After discovering some weed in Shane Ray’s vehicle just before draft day, a top 10 pick fell al the way to 28. So Denver snagged Ray in the first round. Many considered this a bonus of a pick as long as he could handle his “off the field” stuff. Well off the field hasn’t been an issue but staying on it certainly has. With several injuries keeping him out of quite a few games since 2015 we just haven’t seen enough of him to warrant a positive grade. And since being a successful NFL player is about consistent, solid play, I’m forced to give Ray a C- based on lack of reps.
2016- BUST ALERT. Paxton Lynch was given every possible chance to be THE guy in Denver. But he just doesn’t look to be anything more than a 5 year backup before exiting the NFL for good. F…too harsh? 1st rounders have to at least play and Lynch isn’t good enough to warrant too many meaningful reps.
2017 – Denver went for need for the first time since Elway took over. Garrett Boles was the most penalized tackle in his rookie season but showed a lot of promise on a shaky offensive line. It’s way too soon to tell but might be reasonable to give him a “wait and see” grade…and to me, those land you a C.
So 1 A, 1 D, 1 B, 2 C’s, and 1 F. (looks like my freshmen year at UNC) Clearly this is not a wonderful report card. But a key point in looking at these picks? Aside from Von Miller at 2, all these picks are 20 plus. I’ve said it for years; outside the top ten, maybe 15, and the Draft becomes a crap shoot all the way through the 7th round. Is that an excuse? Not when multiple years yield similar results. Elway is a an average to a bit below average drafter but several of those grades are based on what we’ve seen. It’s foolish to assume guys like Roby, Ray and Boles won’t see at least some improvement but how much will determine their grades in the next few years.
Another note; most of those picks came at times when Denver was winning divisions and going to SB’s. The draft wasn’t as much of a concern as it is now. And since Denver is in the top 5 pick category, it’s fair to say that the lack of focus on the draft is rearing its ugly head now. So while I have been a supporter of Elway’s leadership since 2011, there’s no question 2018 presents a number of challenges for him and the Broncos and it starts next Thursday night!
Come join us at the Tavern in St. Michaels Square next Thursday, 11a-3p, as we talk all things NFL draft, Broncos and the rest of the NFL.
