Mark Knudson’s Three Strikes Blog: Strike Three:
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Drafting the “best player available” is a fallacy
STRIKE Three: Those infamous NFL draft pundits – and there are far too many (some self-anointed) now to pick just one – almost become a singular voice when they chant the familiar refrain about how NFL teams need to “draft the best player available.” It’s one of their commandments.
It’s nonsense.
Now this is not a vote in favor of the common mistake of “drafting for need,” because the two opposite philosophies are not the only options available. What smart teams do is draft “the best player available at a position of need.”
For example: The Arizona Cardinals last year used the 10th pick in the first round to draft UCLA quarterback Josh Rosen. Was he the “best player available?” No…but the Cardinals needed a quarterback, and Rosen was the best quarterback available with that pick…as well as being one of the best players still on the board.
See how that should work?
Of course the Cardinals being the Cardinals, this year they have the very first pick in the draft, and are thinking seriously – according to the draftnicks – of picking ANOTHER quarterback, Oklahoma’s Kyler Murray with that selection. Murray isn’t close to being the best player who will be available…and it’s also no longer a position of need in Arizona (Rosen had a so-so rookie season, but will undoubtedly improve…) leaving many observers scratching their heads. This is NOT how it’s supposed to work.
How should it work? Also last season the Indianapolis Colts broke with another draftnick commandment by selecting an offensive guard with the 7th pick in the draft. While offensive tackles are often high draft picks, guards are seen as being less in demand, and easier to obtain later in the process. But the Colts – who had a franchise quarterback in Andrew Luck coming back from injury and needing bullet proof protection – broke the draftnick commandments and selected guard Quentin Nelson from Notre Dame with the pick.
Nelson was the best player available at a position of need. He was a home run pick.
All Nelson did as a rookie is earn ALL-PRO status in his first year in the league. Not just a Pro-Bowl selection, ALL-PRO. The best in the LEAGUE at his position. Consequently, Luck had a great bounce-back season and the Colts went from worst in their division to the AFC play-offs.
Funny how that works.
For their part, the Denver Broncos got far too caught up in draftnick dogma and selected the guy they thought was the BPA, pass rusher Bradley Chubb from North Carolina State, one pick ahead of the Colts. Chubb had a very good rookie season…but the Broncos were already well stocked at his position and didn’t necessarily need Chubb to get back into the play-off mix. While Chubb put up good sack numbers playing opposite Von Miller, Denver went 6-10 and missed the play-offs for a third straight season, due in no small part to ineffectiveness along the offensive line.
Obviously Nelson would have filled a BIG void in the Denver offensive line. So while the Broncos picked the guy they thought was the BPA…rather than picking the BPA at a position of need as they should have, the Colts got their man and a play-off spot.
Nelson could have made a BIG difference in the 2018 Broncos and beyond. Because of the circumstance, Chubb didn’t.
Now we are looking at the upcoming draft and asking ourselves what the Broncos will do. Do they draft a quarterback with this year’s 10th pick? Even with the arrival of Joe Flacco via trade, QB is absolutely a position of great need in Denver. So are cornerback and linebacker. Ironically, Denver may now need help at the pass rushing end position, because after drafting Chubb they have said goodbye to long time contributor Shaq Barrett and former first round pick Shane Ray.Let’s just hope that the Broncos can see the forest through the trees of draftpicks and leave the “best player available” stuff behind. There are plenty of positions that could use help from the BPA at that spot.
Wanna argue? Hit me up on Twitter @MarkKnudson41
