Mark Knudson’s Three Strikes Blog: Strike One
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STRIKE ONE: Nolan Arenado and the Colorado Rockies are getting closer.
The two sides just announced an agreement that really changes nothing for this year. Nolan was under team control for 2019 already – they just had to figure out what his salary would be since he was eligible for arbitration. They did – a record $26 mil for the upcoming season – but nothing is guaranteed beyond the end of this season.
Yet.
It’s coming. Before spring training is over, Nolan’s camp and the Rockies will agree to a long term contract that will keep the GOAT of 3rd baseman in purple pinstripes for several more seasons.
The salary figure involved has pretty much been decided now. It’s just the length of the deal that remains TBD.
Conventional wisdom says the Arenado camp will be looking for the security of a deal around eight years. But as we’ve seen in the (lack of) dealings with prime free agents Manny Machado and Bryce Harper, the length of contracts for players in the mid to late 20’s is becoming THE major sticking point in these kinds of negotiations.
A year ago, the Rockies gave Charlie Blackmon as six-year deal before he was to hit the free agent market. Blackmon’s deal was for four years plus two “player-option” years at an average salary of just over $18 mil per.
It’s fair to expect Arenado, age 27, to get a similar length deal…perhaps a year or even two longer but with options as well. Arenado will make at least $26 mil per year, but since he’s younger than Blackmon, his contract could be longer.
Some in the analytics community – or those who are simply leery of long term deals for any player – are arguing against this kind of deal for Nolan because of the effect on the rest of the team and future payroll. The fear is the team won’t have the money to spend in the future on players like Trevor Story or Kyle Freeland.
That kind of thinking overlooks the impact would be of allowing Arenado to leave via free agency or trade. That impact would be felt most severely in the clubhouse, where the players – to a man – would be frustrated and upset that management was no longer showing the desire to win. Rather than be a serious, year-in, year-out contender, Colorado would slip back into also-ran status, a virtual farm club for the other, bigger always-contending teams. That would create damage to the organization that would take years to undo.
Think back to Matt Holiday’s original stint with the Rockies.
When Holiday became eligible of arbitration and the big money that went along with it, Colorado locked him up for two seasons at a total of $23 mil (peanuts today, right?) Colorado also offered a four year extension at $18 mil per plus an option year at $12 mil. Holiday’s agent Scott Boras rejected the extension and the Rockies were forced to trade their marquee player.
They made the play-offs in 2009 with a young Carlos Gonzalez filling in nicely for Holiday. But with the “cheap” label now stamped on the team logo by the rest of baseball, the Rockies were forced to embark on an internal rebuild that lasted the next seven seasons.
Sign Nolan to a long-term deal and the Rockies will keep their seat at the big boys table where the serious players contend for titles. We already know where they end up if they don’t.
“White Men Can’t Jump? Evidently most football coaches don’t think they can play receiver either. Stay tuned for Strike Two…
