Mark Knudson’s Three Strikes Blog: Strike Two:
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Can the young Denver Nuggets stand the heat?
STRIKE TWO: These Denver Nuggets were never going to land the top seed in the NBA’s Western Conference play-offs. Wasn’t going to happen. And it’s better this way.
This group of young Nuggets are better off being the #2 or #3 seed than they would be having that huge target – not to mention the full attention of the defending champion Golden State Warriors – on their backs. As it is, we really don’t know how much pressure this group can handle and still perform.
The most recent answers aren’t that promising. First, with the chance to put a tighter grip on the #2 seed and the home court advantages that go with it, the Nuggets blew a home game to the lowly Washington Wizards. In that game, star center Nikola Jokic lost his cool and got thrown out of the game – right when his team needed him the most. That was followed by another blow out loss to the Warriors in the two team’s final regular season meeting.
Not to panic, but Denver’s lead on Houston for the number three seed is now just a game and a half. The Rockets have won three straight and that image of James Harden and company is getting larger in the review mirror. The current fourth seed, Portland, is just two games behind the Nuggets. Denver has five games left – and two of them are against the Trailblazers.
If the play-offs began today, Denver would host San Antonio in the first round. Coincidently, those same two teams play at the Pepsi Center on Wednesday night is what has become a must-win for the Nuggets.
Denver is guaranteed of being back in the play-offs for the first time since 2013, so by any measure, this has already been a wonderful season. It’s something to build on for a young team that only lacks experience under fire. And they are getting that right now. But how much can they handle and how far can they go THIS season?
We’re going to find out how they respond in the season’s final five games.
After the Spurs leave town, the Nuggets get a day off to think about things before Portland arrives. Then the two-game trip to Portland and current fifth seed (and Denver nemesis) Utah before closing things out at home against Minnesota. Conventional wisdom says Denver will need four more wins – reaching the magical number 55 for the season – to hold on to the #2 spot. Houston has only four games left – but they will likely win them all and get to 54 wins for the season. A tie breaker goes to the Rockets, who won the season series against Denver three games to one.
The two games against Portland are obviously doubly important. The Blazers have five games left but the other three are against sub-.500 teams. So only Denver stands between Portland and 54 wins on the season.
Ending up with the #3 seed would be just fine – but also a little ominous. Last time Denver was in the post season, they were the third seed (with 57 wins) before getting knocked out in the first round by the upstart sixth-seeded Warriors. That team came out of nowhere (like this one) to land home court advantage. Head Coach George Karl won NBA Coach of the Year (which current Nuggets Coach Michael Malone is expected to receive as well.) It’s kind of eerie.
It’s all in the hands of this group of upstarts now. Can they regroup and get hot again before the post season begins the weekend after next? Or is the spotlight still a little too bright? Stay tuned.
Wanna argue? Hit me up on Twitter @MarkKnudson41.Coming Friday: Rockies Must-Win Weekend
