Mark Knudson’s Three Strikes Blog: Strike One:
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Are the Nuggets the team no one wants to play in post season? Not necessarily…
STRIKE ONE: Mark this down: The Denver Nuggets are going to be a part of the NBA Western Conference play-offs for the first time since 2012. Go ahead and make your post season party plans. They’re in.
The question that remains now is where Denver finishes among the play-off participants, and if they can hold on to a top four seeding that guarantees at least one home play-off series…maybe more.
If you’re the Nuggets, home court might mean a bit more to you than some other teams. Even after dropping their second straight home game over the weekend, Denver still has a spectacular 27-6 record at the Pepsi Center. We all know that opponents don’t like coming to the high altitude.
But are the Nuggets that team that “nobody wants to face” in the early rounds of the play-offs?
No. Probably not.
Come play-off time, it’s going to be all about match-ups. And for the Nuggets – currently the #2 seed in the west – there are some good ones, and some not-so-good ones.
For starters, anyone who wants the Nuggets to meet the Utah Jazz (who would currently be the #6 seed) is nuts. Utah has proven to be a bad match up for Denver. And forget any home court altitude advantage. The Jazz have the one-man-wrecking crew Donovan Mitchell, along with defensive standout Rudy Gobert. They’re a better defensive team than the Nuggets, and defense wins in the play-offs. Nope. The Nuggets do not want to see Utah in the first round.
On the flip side, most Nuggets fans would welcome a match up with the inexperienced Los Angeles Clippers in the opening round. Denver is young…LA is younger. And experience matters in the post season, too.
Another possibility is the veteran San Antonio Spurs, led by arguably the best coach in the NBA in Gregg Popovich. That’s not a match up anyone wants in the first round, not against Pop. His teams are ALWAYS prepared.
Should the Nuggets falter down the stretch, they could conceivably tumble down as far as the fifth spot, meaning they wouldn’t have home court and they’d likely be taking on either Oklahoma City or Houston. For whatever reason, the Nuggets have played some of their best basketball against the Thunder, even though on paper at least, OKC would seem to have the better team. At least in that series – which would be emotional and hotly contested, Denver could play the underdog card.
Then there’s a potential match up with Houston. James Harden looks to be ball-hogging his way to another MVP award, but the Rockets haven’t been the team everyone thought they’d be before the season. Denver doesn’t have a great recent history against Houston, but they did handle them easily last time they played and for some strange reason, a first round matchup between the two wouldn’t necessarily be bad for the Nuggets.
So if we had out druthers, we’d want the Nuggets first play-off experience in six seasons to be against the Clippers. Short travel against and inexperienced foe, and even though they’d be favored, the Nuggets would likely win it in six games.
What we don’t want? We don’t want anything to do with the Utah Jazz, period.
Stay tuned.
Wanna argue? Hit me up on Twitter @MarkKnudson41. Coming Wednesday: Cargo Car-gone? For good?
